Now that the dust has settled on the NBA summer offseason, we can start to take evaluation of what to expect in the 2010-2011 season. This was the busiest offseason in recent memory. More big names changed teams than we have seen at any point since before the current collective bargaining agreement was put into place after the 1998 lockout. In many ways, the offseason transactions were more exciting than the NBA Finals themselves – which, despite going seven games, were a bit of a dud in terms of excitement. When the MVP of the series goes 6 for 24 in the deciding game, the quality of basketball can very much be in question.
The Los Angeles Lakers may have won the title last year, but the Miami Heat – without a doubt – won the NBA’s offseason. The Heat landed the two most coveted free agents on the market, all while managing to keep a solid supporting cast in place. The additions of Lebron James and Chris Bosh were not completely unexpected, news began to leak of this a couple weeks in advance, but it was expected that the rest of the roster would have to be gutted to work these two players into place. That most certainly did not happen.
Any preview of the Heat will have to begin with their Big 3. With apologies to LA (Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom), Boston (Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Ray Allen), and San Antonio (Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker) – this now the biggest Big 3 in the league. Lebron is the reigning MVP of the league, Wade has been an NBA Finals MVP, and Bosh single handedly made the Toronto Raptors relevant for a few years despite a terrible supporting cast. Lebron and Wade are two of the top three players in the entire league, Bosh is in the top 10-15 range. Each brings a multitude of skills (more than just scoring), although none of the three is a plus defender – many in the media will give Lebron too much defensive credit when he essentially has just played “rover” on defense the past two years and let teammates take the tougher assignments. How these three complement each other and show an ability to work together (share the ball) will ultimately be the number one determinant of the Heat’s level of success.
But the Heat’s roster does not stop there. The Heat also added Mike Miller and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Miller is quietly coming off one of the great shooting seasons in NBA history with a bad team (Washington). If he hits anywhere near the 48% from three point land that he did a year ago, that will help create space on the floor and prevent defenses from being able to double any of the Big 3. Ilgauskas is older and slow of foot, but he still has a dependable outside shot and has the size to defend the legitimate bigs around the league. In addition to the additions, the Heat also return Udonis Haslem (who was integral to the 2006 Championship run and took less money to stay), James Jones (another solid perimeter shooter), Mario Chalmers (coming off a disappointing sophomore season, but does have perimeter skills and defends the ball well), and Joel Anthony (adds size and started 16 games a year ago). With the exception Michael Beasley, who never quite fit into Miami’s system, and Jermaine O’Neal, who is a shell of his former self, Miami returns every major contributor off of a playoff team last year. So, once you add in the additions, this is a stacked ballclub. Which begs the question: Where will it get them?
Prediction: NBA champions…in 2011-12. This year, I am still going with Orlando coming out of the East. As good as Miami’s nucleus is, I think it will take a year for Lebron & Wade to learn how to play together. Miami also does not have anybody who can even begin to guard Dwight Howard in the post. The Heat will win 60+ games this season, but I think the rings will have to wait a year.
Miami Hotels Collins Avenue
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